Apple’s Vision Pro generated a buzz when preorders opened, quickly selling out within hours. However, the extended shipping times that appeared soon after may be an indication that demand for the product is waning. According to Ming-Chi Kuo, a top Apple analyst at TF International Securities, shipping times for all models of the Vision Pro increased to five to seven weeks. Kuo estimated that Apple sold 160,000 to 180,000 units over the weekend, but the unchanged shipping times 48 hours later raised concerns.
Kuo expressed a major concern that demand for the Vision Pro might quickly taper off after initial orders from core fans and heavy users. In contrast, popular iPhone models typically experience a steady increase in shipping times, indicating growing demand even after the initial sell-out. This difference in pattern suggests that the Vision Pro may not see the sustained demand that iPhone models usually receive. If this trend continues, it could pose a challenge for Apple to ship the projected 500,000 units of the Vision Pro this year.
Initially, Kuo predicted that Apple would produce between 60,000 and 80,000 Vision Pro units for its February 2 release. However, he now believes that shipping 500,000 units should not be challenging for Apple. While Kuo remains optimistic, analysts at Morgan Stanley offered a more conservative estimate, projecting that Apple will likely ship 300,000 to 400,000 units of its virtual reality headset this year. Nevertheless, the potential for higher numbers remains depending on the initial sell-through feedback.
Wall Street analysts do not anticipate the Vision Pro’s $3,499 price tag to yield a significant revenue boost for Apple in the short term. Instead, they are closely monitoring how customers initially receive this new product category, which could signal its potential in the future. Currently, the Vision Pro remains a niche product, according to Kuo. Therefore, its success or failure will likely have minimal impact on Apple’s bottom line.
While initial sales of the Vision Pro were undoubtedly impressive, the extended shipping times that followed are cause for speculation. Will demand for this high-priced virtual reality headset continue to grow, or will it quickly fade away after the initial rush? Only time will tell, but the trend observed with iPhone models suggests a potential drop-off in demand may be on the horizon. Apple needs to carefully analyze the market response and make strategic decisions to ensure the long-term viability of the Vision Pro. For now, the product remains in the niche category, but Apple has the opportunity to turn it into a game-changer if demand remains strong.
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